What Donald Trump did on his summer holiday

Now imagine for a second you're Donald Trump, and
you've just been given that piece of homework. I think
the first thing you're going to do is ask for a few extra
sheets of paper because, what a summer.
From distant, foggy memory, I also seem to remember
that the one other instruction you got from the teacher
was to make it descriptive, and not too much of a list.
Well, sorry about that, Miss. This is what Donald and
his pals in the White House got up to:
1. Hires a new communications director called
Anthony Scaramucci
2. Press secretary Sean Spicer quits in protest. Says
he's happy but is fulminating
3. The Mooch (aka Scaramucci) gives obscene
interview to New Yorker magazine
4. Trump fires his chief of staff, the hapless Reince
Priebus (abandoned at Andrews air force base)
5. Hires a new one, Gen Kelly, who was the head of
homeland security
6. On Kelly's first day, the president fires the new
communications director - Scaramucci has lasted
just 10 days - less time than it takes for a pint of
milk to go off
7. He hires a new comms director, his fourth in seven
months
8. He publicly shames his attorney-general, numerous
times, but Jeff Sessions clings on
9. Loses a healthcare bill
10. Publicly lashes the three Republicans who voted
against it, several times
11. Bans transgender people from the military, via
Twitter, without telling the military
12. Military chiefs say: "Forget it, we don't take orders
from tweets; there's a chain of command"
13. Makes political speech to Scouts aged between
11-18
14. Claims Scouts leader rang to congratulate him on
greatest speech ever made
15. Scouts leader says there was no such call, and
issues statement apologising to Scouts for
president's misjudged address
16. Says the president of Mexico rang to congratulate
him on his border policies
17. Mexican president says no such call ever took
place
18. White House denies the president is a liar, but
can't explain the president's claims
19. Takes days to sign bipartisan sanctions bill and
then criticises Congress for making him sign it
20. Thanks Vladimir Putin for expelling hundreds of
American diplomats
21. Condemns leaks but then says he likes the leaks
because it shows people love him
22. Encourages police officers to be rough with
suspects during arrests
23. Police chiefs condemn statement. White House
clarifies that it was a joke
24. Publicly shames the Republican Senate leader,
whom he needs to get anything done, several times
25. Seems to respond to North Korea by threatening
nuclear war
26. Tells Guam, which has a big US military base which
North Korea's leader threatened to attack, that the
publicity will help tourism
27. Chief strategist Steve Bannon contradicts
president. Says: "There's no military option in NK"
28. Threatens Venezuela with a military option
29. After a neo-Nazi rally in which a woman was killed,
the president blames both sides
30. After backlash, cleans it up. Denounces white
supremacists, neo-Nazis and the Ku Klux Klan
31. Cross at having been forced to do this, erases all
of it and reverts to blaming both sides, saying
there were "fine people there"
32. Military high command issue statement
condemning all forms of discrimination in thinly
veiled attack on commander-in-chief
33. Promotes his Virginia vineyard when asked if he
will - as president - visit Charlottesville
34. And gets condemnations from Democrats,
Republicans, former presidents, world leaders,
allies, his own staff, and the Pope.
35. Publicly shames company bosses who abandon
him. There's a mass walkout by execs leading to
disbanding of key White House business bodies
36. Fires Steve Bannon, his chief strategist and
architect of Trump victory
37. Does U-turn on Afghanistan and commits more
troops, having repeatedly said he'd pull US forces
out
38. Threatens to close government down if he doesn't
get funding for border wall with Mexico
39. Appeals for unity of American people
40. Next day lambasts his enemies and critics in highly
partisan speech
41. Day after that appeals for unity again
42. Pardons ex-Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio, who had
been convicted for defying court order to stop
traffic patrols targeting suspected immigrants
And this is the quiet season. This is the still, millpond
of August when nothing happens; when days are long
and news bulletins are slim, when surfing dogs and the
battle of the bake-offs should dominate the news
cycle.
Barack Obama's former chief of staff, and now the
Mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel, tweeted at one point
that he was going to nominate the White House for a
Tony award for most drama. Not best drama. Just
most .
So to the big question: Does any of this matter?
There is no shortage of pundits and political
professionals in Washington who will tell you things
can't continue like this, and that there is no way that
Donald Trump can last a full four years in office. There
is a degree of wishful thinking in that for some people.
For others it is a genuine, cold-eyed assessment.
I am unconvinced. For a start the drama, the chaos
and noise are what this president thrives on. If he
hated the drama, he wouldn't stoke and provoke as
much as he does.
Where it does matter is in his relationships with the
lawmakers on Capitol Hill, with the business leaders
across the country, with the money men on Wall Street,
with the military high command who seem to have
bristled at the way their commander-in-chief is
behaving and with his fellow leaders around the world.
Just consider for a minute his threat to allow a
government shutdown if he doesn't get funding for the
border wall with Mexico. The president says it's making
good on a campaign pledge: the lawmakers, still under
their breath, say: "Yeah, and the other part of the
pledge was that Mexico was going to pay."
He has publicly lambasted the Republican Senate
majority leader, Mitch McConnell. On any number of
occasions. How does that help him to get an
infrastructure bill passed? How does that help to get
tax reform through?
What about his supporters?
And then there's the Trump base. Has support for
Donald Trump fractured? Yes, a bit. Do the polls that
chart approval ratings for him make alarming reading?
Yep, the numbers disapproving seem to be rising, and
the approving seem to be dwindling.
But his base is still 100% with him. Cheering, whooping
and lapping it up.
He is their man, fighting the system and draining the
swamp and taking on the establishment. Just look at
the crowds in Phoenix, Arizona, last week.
Future success?
You see, I think there is a perfectly plausible scenario
where by a squeak and a cigarette-paper width of
margin he gets his legislative agenda through. In which
case in 2020 he could go to the American people and
say: "Look, I delivered on what I promised."
There is perhaps a more likely set of circumstances
where he is blocked and thwarted - and fails on all the
big legislative tests - no repeal and replacement of
Obamacare, no significant change to the tax code, no
wall with Mexico, no change to America's crumbling
infrastructure.
But that doesn't mean it's over for Trump. He then
goes to the country and says: "The system is rigged.
Draining the swamp is going to take even longer than I
ever thought. Parts of the Republican leadership need
to be swept away. The fight goes on. We'll Make
America Great Again."
And that brings us to Donald Trump's ego - and maybe
a choice that this White House must confront as it
takes stock of this chaotic summer.
Does Donald Trump want to go down in history as a
heroic failure, or the winner who turned things around
with his relentless energy and deal-making nous?
If it's the latter then he needs to start nurturing all
those people he has alienated, and in record fast time.
And if it's the former, then carry on with the rallies that
pump up the base and leave many others feeling
queasy.

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