German election 2017: Polls and odds tracker as Merkel seeks fourth term as Chancellor

The German election takes place this
Sunday , with Chancellor Angela Merkel
heavy favourite to defend her position
against Martin Schulz for a fourth term in
power.
Polls currently show that Merkel's Christian
Democratic Union (CDU) party - with its
Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social
Union (CSU) - will be the largest party after
the Bundestag election on 24 September, but
they will fall short of a majority.
This is common in Germany, and so the
resulting parliament is in part determined
by how the smaller parties perform, and
which coalition possibilities will be born.
21 Sep 2017
CDU/CSU: 36.2%
SPD: 22.3%
Die Linke: 9.6%
AfD: 10.2%
FDP: 9.5%
Grünen: 7.8%
German election poll tracker
Hover or tap for more info
How does the German voting
system work?
Each person casts two votes in the
Bundestag election, to allocate a total of 598
seats. Half of these are to elect a local MP by
constituency, in a first-past-the-post
fashion.
The remaining 299 votes are elected via
party lists, allocated near-proportionately to
the party vote share in each of Germany’s
16 federal states.
To be included in this seat allocation
process, a party must achieve five per cent
of the national vote.
This second round of seat allocation also
means that the total number of MPs can be
higher, with politicians elected in "overhang
seats" in order to balance the state- and
constituency-level votes. The most recent
parliament had 32 overhang seats, taking
the total up to 631 MPs.
This allows voters to represent their
interests locally through their chosen
representative, as well as nationally in the
party they feel will be strongest in the
Bundestag.
In the end, the seat share for each party
ends up very similar to their vote share -
unlike the system used in the UK's
parliamentary elections.
So who will win the German
election and when will we know
the results?
Merkel's CDU is looking most likely to win
the most seats in the Bundestag - for the
fourth election in a row.
The SPD , led by former President of the
European Parliament Martin Schulz, is in
second place in the polls - securing around
a quarter of the vote.
The AfD - the far-right Alternative for
Germany party - had enjoyed a slight rise in
the polls in 2016 but have since collapsed
into in-fighting and unpopularity.
German election: Potential Bundestag
composition
Seat share per party based on current polling
average
In reality, the CDU will have to seek a
coalition agreement with the SPD or one of
the other minor parties to form a
government.
We should know who has won the election
by 6pm BST this Sunday, when voting ends
and the exit poll is released, although it
won't be several more weeks until a
coalition government is officially agreed.
The return of the far-right
A late surge in support has propelled the
far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD)
party into third place in the opinion polls
with just days to go before the ballot.
Last time around the party, fighting in it's
first federal election, failed to win a
constituency outright and fell just short of
the five per cent required in order to secure
MPs via the secondary proportional
representation stage of the election.
This time however they seem guaranteed to
win representation in the Bundestag with
the latest polling average putting them at
slightly over 10 per cent.
YouGov's Multilevel Regression with
Poststratification model puts them on 12
per cent.
Were the AfD to secure a third place finish
they could find themselves becoming the
main opposition party in Germany if
Merkel's CDU/CSU party decide to extend
their Grand Coalition with the SPD.
Potential coalitions
The centre-left Social Democratic Party
(SPD) has been in coalition with centre-
right CDU in this current government, as
well as in Merkel's first term. These two
parties are Germany’s biggest, leading to a
union dubbed the "Grand Coalition".
The polls are currently suggesting that
Germans are content with their current
government, which means a Grand
Coalition could happen for a third time in
just four elections.
Another option is a Black-Yellow coalition,
consisting of Merkel's CDU party propped
up by the smaller Free Democratic Party
(FDP). This would take Merkel over the
target needed for a majority, and was the
option the party opted for in 2009-2013.
The only situation that poses a risk to
Merkel’s leadership is a left-wing "Red-Red-
Green" coalition, led by the SPD's Martin
Schulz. For this, he would have to gather
enough seats together alongside the Linke
(Left) and Grüne (Greens) parties.
Potential paths to a German coalition
government
Seat share, based on current polling averages,
for different coalition scenarios
What do the parties stand for?
The main parties standing in the election
are as follows:
What are the betting odds for the
German Bundestag election?
Political pollsters have taken a beating
recently after failing to predict a British
Hung Parliament in 2017 , a Leave vote last
summer and a Donald Trump victory in
November .
For those who have lost faith in polling,
there is another way of predicting electoral
outcomes: ask people who are prepared to
put their money where their mouth is.
Many now believe that political betting
markets can better predict elections, relying
on the wisdom of a crowd of punters to sort
and weigh all the probabilities.
Coral's latest odds for the election have Mrs
Merkel as most likely to continue as
Chancellor after the election. The latest odds
for the party to emerge with the most seats
are:
Our poll tracker takes in national polls from
a range of German pollsters: INSA, Infratest
Dimap, Emnid, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe
Wahlen, Allensbach and IPSOS. Their
individual polls, while of different sample
sizes, use nationally representative samples.
Our seat share projection is based on the
average of the last eight polls, excluding any
parties that are polling at under five per
cent, as the German proportional top-up
system does.
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Christian Democrats (CDU) : The leading
party in Germany, headed by Angela
Merkel. The centre-right group - made
up of the Christian Democratic Party
(CDU) and the Bavarian Christian
Social Union (CSU) - they have
employment, tax cuts and ongoing
public investment at the forefront of
their manifesto.
Social Democrats (SPD) : Led by Martin
Schulz, the centre-left are vying to
make another Grand Coalition to
remain in government. The party
polled well following the election of
their new leader, but then suffered
once again in regional polls. The SPD is
a traditionally working class party,
pledging investment in education and
infrastructure, funded by higher taxes
for the rich.
Left (Linke): Led by Sahra Wagenknecht
and loosely descended from the East
German communists. This small party,
often used as a protest vote, is
campaigning for a rise in national
minimum wage, a rejection of military
missions abroad and the dissolution of
NATO.
Green (Grüne): Led by co-chairs Katrin
Göring-Eckardt and Cem Özdemir, this
party could be the coalition
kingmakers. They rely on educated,
urban citizens, focusing on the
environment, taxes and social policies.
Free Democratic Party (FDP): Led by
Christian Lindner, the party was
Merkel's junior coalition party in her
second term. It failed to reach five per
cent of the vote to allow another
coalition in 2013. The party campaigns
for tax cuts and to remain in financial
markets - particularly within the EU.
Alternative for Germany (AfD) : A right-
wing populist party lead by Alice
Weidel and Alexander Gauland. The
party's hardline anti- EU , anti-
immigration views have attracted
voters from almost all of the other
parties, especially among lower income
households.

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