N Korea missile test: What message is Kim Jong Un trying to send?

This latest missile launch was not unexpected.
South Korean intelligence sources had reported
movement of North Korean launch vehicles early last
week, while there had been speculation a test would
be timed to coincide with a national holiday on 9
September.
Had that happened, it would have been interpreted as
a show of strength by Kim Jong Un - a signal, on the
anniversary of the country's founding, of where it is
heading under his leadership - towards the nuclear
deterrent his citizens are told is the only means to
secure their survival.
Instead, coming as it does now four days after the
UN Security Council passed its strongest sanctions
resolution yet, this will now be seen as a statement
of North Korea's defiance - a furious rejection of the
measures being imposed upon it by the international
community.
There may be truth to both, but in trying to interpret
the precise message each individual missile is
intended to send, we should not lose track of the
bigger, crystal clear message the Kim regime is
telegraphing over and over again.
Kim is telling us directly where this is heading - he's
trying to develop nuclear weapons, capable of
reaching the mainland United States, and he is very
nearly there.
This is his signature policy. It's known as "Byungjin",
and it calls for the simultaneous development of
nuclear weapons and the economy.
There is no mystery here, apart from perhaps how
the development of the economy is compatible with
the pursuit of weapons that bring ever-increasing
sanctions, further impoverishing his people.
Presumably that part is intended to come later.
What is less clear is Kim's motive.
The argument North Korean officials make, and
several have made to me, is that countries without
nuclear weapons are vulnerable to US-led regime
change.
They cite the examples of Libya and Iraq, and the
fate of Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.
Under this rationale, the deterrent - with the ability to
threaten the United States directly - is a means to
ensure the continued existence of a regime that
North Koreans are told is under constant threat from
hostile "US imperialist aggressors".
The good news is that if this is the motivation, they
would be very unlikely to ever actually use their
weapons.
A regime concerned primarily with its own self-
preservation would be unlikely to trigger the very
conflict that would almost certainly ensure its
demise.
The danger comes later, if Kim then believes he has
impunity; the US alliance with South Korea and
Japan is weakening; and his ability to strike the
American homeland would dissuade them from
intervening to prevent the reunification of the Korean
peninsula by force.
At this stage we cannot know Kim's true intentions -
what we do know is that despite the condemnation
and the international sanctions, he shows absolutely
no sign of voluntarily abandoning his nuclear or
missile programmes.
And there will be more launches to come.

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