Thank God for Atiku and Fayose

Power at the top is white hot. It is not for the timid.
Leadership is also not for those contented to follow
the crowd – usually of human sheep. With the 2019
elections only seventeen months away and the two
major political associations – the All Progressives
Congress, APC, and the Peoples Democratic Party,
PDP – in disarray, lacking leadership, Nigeria is in
deep trouble.
We are in worse trouble because with such a small
time left to 2019 elections and the economy much
worse than in 2015 and declining further, the
President we elect will have to dig us out of a
deeper hole than the one in which Buhari found us
after Jonathan squandered the biggest bonanza of
any Head of State in history.
Atiku and Fayose
In any other democracy, several dozen candidates,
including some from the President’s own party,
would have thrown their hats into the ring. By now,
the media would have been inundated with various
ideas designed to chart a new course for Nigeria and
to lead the country in a new direction – especially
with respect to economic development.
FG officials, their die-hard party supporters and
those who feed from the current economic illness
can claim not to know that the nation is sliding
backwards and there is no solution on the economic
agenda of the Buhari administration.
Since every organization is a reflection of the leader,
we appear to have been condemned to the quagmire
in which we find ourselves, owing to the confession
of Mr. President about his lack of deep knowledge of
economics. That predicament has been
compounded by the fact that he does not even know
how to select a winning team.
We can do very little about the leadership between
now and 2019. We can do a lot about the leadership
from May 29, 2019. We can start by searching for a
President who like others in the new millennium
understands the rudiments of basic economics and
who will select competent people to support him;
not those handed to him by colleagues from a failed
political association.
However, it is essential that the individuals who feel
they can undertake the task must come forward
now to address us about how they intend to get us
out of seemingly irreversible slide down into the pit
of poverty and destitution. We should not forget that
the President we elect in 2019 will lead us until
2023 – more than six years away.
One thing is certain; unless we reverse the trend
downwards, the average Nigerian living in 2023 will
be much poorer than he/she was in 2013. That
should send a shiver down our spines. But, before
briefly outlining some of the economic horrors that
the 2019 President will inherit, let me quickly point
to my reason for praying for Atiku (APC) and Fayose
(PDP). There is no real effort to be non-partisan
here.
They just happen to be the only two politicians who
have demonstrated the courage to declare their
intention to run. Hopefully, others will soon join
them. There is no point buying advert space on CNN
to publicize your philanthropy. Have the courage to
declare now. Nigeria needs people to come forward
with innovative ideas about how to grow our
economy at seven per cent per annum and rescue
us from those who want us to dance in the streets
for achieving 0.55 per cent. That is building a
monument to a battle lost.
Nigerians now should expect from Atiku and Fayose
well-reasoned ideas about how to get our country
out of the economic rot in which it is now stuck.
Empty political rhetoric will not be acceptable.
Cheap promises about free food, free money etc will
also be rejected. All 180 million Nigerians witness
the swindle that the Social Intervention Programme,
SIP, announced on May 29, 2015, has become. A
purposeful President should spare us such fraudulent
gimmicks.
Granted, coming up with a fresh and deliverable
economic programme would require that each
aspirant should assemble his own group of economic
advisers as he goes along – at some cost. But, that
is precisely what Presidential candidates do all the
time. Our country cannot be different if we want to
join the big league of economic powers.
Incidentally, the year 2020 will be tucked into the
next tenure. Years ago, when it appeared as if 2020
was light years away, Yar’Adua’s and Jonathan’s
daydreamers wasted a lot of our resources shouting
about Nigeria being among the top twenty
economies. It was based on nothing concrete. Even
when the economy was rebased promoting Nigeria to
the top position in Africa, few people, including
Nigerians, believed it.
We held a different view and at various forums
labeled the Vision 20-2020 a hoax. Today, nobody in
his right senses talks of Vision 2020 anymore. There
is a lesson in that experience for Atiku and Fayose,
as well as others who might be planning to run for
office. Don’t engage individuals who will tell you
what you want to hear. Get advisers who will first of
all provide you with a good profile of the Nigerian
economy. You will then understand the problems you
will face in Aso Rock.
Of the two announced candidates Atiku would
appear to be the more prepared of the two for
obvious reasons. First, he has been through it before
and can always be relied upon to do his home work.
It is brother Fayose who needs all the assistance he
can get. Courage is essential; but, it is not enough.
Furthermore, two terms as Governor of Ekiti might
not have sufficiently prepared him for the task in
Abuja.
Just in case anybody regards that as insult to Ekiti,
permit me to declare that my mother’s father was
from Ogotun-Ekiti. A departure from the mess in
which we find ourselves must start with telling
ourselves the truth. It will not be easy, but, not
impossible, to transit from Ekiti to Abuja. We saw
that when a novice moved from Bayelsa to Abuja.
Experience managing large and complex units
counts a lot. So does self-discipline.
Predictably, the two candidates have come under
attack from those wedded to the status quo. That
should not deter them. We have known for a long
time that “In a sick country, every step to health is
an insult to those who live on its sickness.” (Bernard
Malamud in THE FIXER). Atiku and Fayose should
know that nothing worthwhile is easy.
But, the rest of us should not leave them alone.
Even if you will not vote for them in the end, each of
us should encourage them to continue and should
ask others to join the race. The most important
question each of us should ask ourselves is: do I
want things to continue like this until 2023? For
those who might hesitate to say “No”, allow me to
mention just two fairly predictable occurrences
which will be devastating.
With a population growing at 3.2 per cent per
annum, by 2023 over 34 million people will be added
to the population of Nigeria. Now, the percentage of
Nigerians now enjoying public water had slumped to
about seven per cent. By 2023, the percentage is
expected to decline to about five per cent. Few, if
any housing estates or development areas will be
served with water. Ask anybody in government what
plans they have for reversing this dangerous trend
and you might as well ask for snow flakes in the
Sahara Desert. Nobody gives what he does not have.
From 2015 to 2017 the economy had contracted;
the growth rate for 2018 is projected to be less than
two and half per cent – if it is achieved. By 2019
the change from cars running on fossil fuel to
electric cars would have accelerated. All the global
car manufacturers now display only e-cars. In
reality, the internal combustion engine had been
given a death sentence. So has oil. The Nigerian
president we elect in 2019 will leave office two
years before most advanced economies would have
abandoned petrol and diesel. But, would he have
positioned Nigeria to survive without oil?
To do that, we would need a President who can
sprint like Usain Bolt and run the Marathon at the
same time. He should be physically strong.
Thank you Atiku and Fayose. Until others have the
balls to come out, I have two candidates to consider
for 2019.
WHEN SILENCE WOULD HAS BEEN GOLDEN
“In addition, the Government’s current N500 billion
Special Intervention Programme is targeting groups
through Home Grown School Feeding Programme…”
– President Buhari’s Independence Anniversary
Broadcast, October 1, 2017.
If there is any more proof that we need a President
who understands economics and finance, Buhari’s
address to the world on Sunday provided all the
evidence we need. Anybody reading this patent half-
truth, deliberate or inadvertent, would be under the
impression that Buhari’s administration had spent
N500 billion to the Special Intervention Programme,
SIP, (a programme whose name keeps changing
while the false narrative about it remains the same)
or is in the process of spending N500 billion.
Nothing can be further from the truth.
In 2016 and 2017 the Federal Government budgeted
N500 billion each year for the SIP. In 2016, less than
N100 billion was spent and only N6.6 billion on
school feeding. With three months to go in 2017,
nobody, not even Buhari knows how much has been
released for SIP, but, it cannot be up to N50 billion.
Obviously, Buhari cannot distinguish between budget
and actual performance. That is precisely the sort of
President we can no longer afford from 2019. But
don’t blame the President; blame those who gave
him the falsehood to read as Independence Day
broadcast.

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