This is what happens if there is no Brexit deal

Could we crash out of the EU without a deal?
The Brexit negotiations are deadlocked and time is
running out to secure an agreement .
Some Brexiteers believe the demands of the EU27 are
so unreasonable we would be better abandoning the
talks.
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Theresa May has always said that “no deal is better
than a bad deal” but is she right?
Here is what could happen if we walked away from
the Brexit talks:
Trade would be paralysed
The UK would be out of the single market and the
customs union.
Free trade with the EU, our largest trading partner,
and dozens of other countries would halt immediately.
EU economies, which have a trade surplus with the
UK, would be hurt too.
Britain would have to fall back on World Trade
Organisation rules which would mean 10% tariffs on
car exports, 22% tariffs on lorries and up to 40% on
some agricultural goods.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank says that
trade with the EU would fall by as much as 29%,
costing the UK economy between £48.6 billion and
£58 billion - the equivalent to between £741 and £884
per person.
The Treasury is equally pessimistic saying it could
cost 800,000 jobs, cut GDP by 6% and see the pound
fall by 15%.
Business would face extra costs
The boss of Nissan Colin Lawther has said leaving the
customs union would be a “disaster” for the firm.
He told MPs that falling back on World Trade
Organisation (WTO) rules would cost the firm
£500million a year in extra import and export duties
and could see it have to scale back its production.
Financial services, our biggest sector, would lose their
passporting rights which allow them to sell products
across the EU without having to get individual
licences in each country.
Tens of thousands of jobs could go in banking,
insurance and trading.
The Financial Conduct Authority says 5,476 British
firms rely on passporting rights.
Food prices will rise
The chairman of Sainsbury’s David Tyler has warned
the cost of the weekly shop will rise if there’s no
deal.
Tyler also warns the checks at customs (see below)
would lead to delays, the risk of empty supermarket
shelves and increased food waste.
The Resolution Foundation says a no deal would see
tariffs on imports of dairy products from the EU will
rise by 45%, on meat products by 37%, and on
clothing, footwear, beverages and tobacco by 10%.
This will have a significant effect on living standard of
the poorest households with three million families
seeing price rises of over £500 a year.
Millions will be left in limbo
The status of 3.2million EU nationals in the UK and
the 1million UK nationals in the EU would thrown into
uncertainty.
British citizens oversees could lose their entitlement
overnight to free emergency healthcare.
The NHS Confederation says that without health cover
tens of thousands of British pensioners would be
forced to return home, putting an added strain of
£500million a year on the NHS.
Travellers would face queues at ports and airports
and in the worst case scenario, we could need visas
to travel to EU countries.
UK travellers in the EU could face immediate roaming
charges.
Queues at customs and airports
All lorries leaving and arriving at Britain’s ports would
be subject to customs checks.
At the moment more than 10,000 lorries a day pass
through Dover and 6,000 by the Channel Tunnel.
Experts say at least 20sq km of land needs to be set
aside at each major port to cater for hauliers waiting
clearance.
The delays have a knock on effect for firms, with
some car components crossing the Channel 30 times
before final assembly.
We would also need thousands more border staff but
they take at least a year to train.
The head of the National Audit Office Sir Amyas
Morse has warned of a "horror show" at borders if we
crash out without a deal.
Security arrangements would be put
at risk
A big question mark would be placed over our
membership of several EU police and security
arrangements.
We could lose access to the European Arrest Warrant,
which allows the extradition of terrorists, murderers,
rapists and paedophiles, and sharing of cross-border
intelligence.
The UK would also leave the European Defence
Agency and lose access to the Schengen and Prüm
databases which store DNA, fingerprint and vehicle
information and holds traveller information from the
passenger name record system.
Northern Ireland peace process would
be put in jeopardy
Crashing out without a deal has serious implications
for Northern Ireland and the peace process.
It could require the imposition a hard border with the
Republic, which could inflame Republican tensions
and lead to a rise in smuggling.
Businesses and commuters would be severely
disrupted.
An estimated 30,000 people commute across the
border each day and 177,000 lorries each month.
Would flights be grounded?
There are conflicting views on whether flights will be
grounded if we leave without a deal.
At the moment airlines and aerospace manufacturers
are overseen the European Aviation Safety Agency.
The Airport Operators Association says that if we
leave the EU without a deal there is no equivalent for
the industry of falling back to World Trade
Organisation rules.
It warns that unless this legal vacuum is addressed
flights could be stopped. Ryanair has also warned
flights could grounded but other airlines are less
pessimistic.
We could lose access to life-saving
medicines
Leaving the EU nuclear agency Euratom threatens the
supply of radioactive isotopes used in scans and
radiation treatment.
Pharma companies warn delays at borders could pose
a “serious threat” to supplies of life-saving medicines
Drug firms could have to move out of the UK in order
to keep their EU-licences for products.
Professor Martin McKee, of the London School of
Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, has said “no deal”
scenario would be “potentially catastrophic” for the
NHS.
Are there any positives?
Brexiteers claim we would be off the hook for the
£12billion a year we pay the EU. But if we fail to
settle our divorce bill it will make it harder to strike a
future trade deal with Brussels.
Brexiteer John Longworth has also claimed we would
no longer be subject to EU red tape and free from EU
tariffs applied to the rest of the world.
This could boost our economy by £120billion, he
argues.
But this would only be the case if we strike trade
deals with non EU countries that compensate for the
loss of access to the single market.
It would also require the UK to become a low tax, low
regulation country threatening investment in public
services and the scrapping of workers' rights.
Pascal Lamy, the former director general of the WTO,
has said, “to fall back on WTO rules would be a
terrible replacement for access to the EU Single
Market.”

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